tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post2807800060001681077..comments2024-03-29T06:09:37.749-04:00Comments on The Slack Wire: Default ≠ DrachmaJW Masonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-16279677553906939062019-09-16T06:14:04.857-04:002019-09-16T06:14:04.857-04:00We offer personal loans up to $ 100,000, are you ...We offer personal loans up to $ 100,000, are you looking for a business loan and have been denied by a bank, we can help with loans of $ 5,000 to a maximum of $ 100,000 with just 3% interest rate you can have access to instant loans.we offer services to customers all over the world, we provide loans that can help you start your dream business,Rebuild and get your business back on track and can also bring you on a path to a better financial future. you can apply in just a few minutes with few steps and get your money the same day (24 hrs).<br />Do not delay! 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With Christmas approaching and still no hope i decided to go online in search for a job and i found posts about davidbenjaminltd@outlook.com and how they help provide blank atm card in less than 3 days and capable of making cash withdrawal up to $70,000 monthly. At first it sounded like a scam to me cos i saw some other reviews talking about how they lost money to some companies i just decided to give this a try as i was already down and out and i made all necessary payments and verily verily i got my card delivered at the exact date and its effectiveness was not short of what i was told its been 3 weeks of blissful usage and i decided to tell the world about this awesome experience. You can contact this company to get yours via davidbenjaminltd@outlook.comClara jonezhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03557906613402685338noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-6677992398472299422015-05-03T16:51:15.510-04:002015-05-03T16:51:15.510-04:00This is the whole point of the Grexit talk. The EU...This is the whole point of the Grexit talk. The EU maintains political power over Greece by threatening financial crisis if the government doesn't behave.A Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06916657901677009228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-2124088534197983242015-05-01T13:37:27.076-04:002015-05-01T13:37:27.076-04:00I wonder though if the widespread belief that defa...I wonder though if the widespread belief that default implies Grexit could result in runs on the banks in the event of a default? Even if there "should" be no problem with keeping the Greek banking system running after a default, if people think that there will be, that belief itself could produce the problem.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-51906793342005762812015-04-24T23:39:32.611-04:002015-04-24T23:39:32.611-04:00I've lost patience with Davies on Greece. He k...I've lost patience with Davies on Greece. He keeps presenting the situation as Syzria having all the power and the Euro Institutions having no agency.<br /><br />The reason Greece is not running a large primary surplus is because the troika designed it that way. They did this even with a nice compliant government in power with New Democracy and they didn't let up on the austerity. Read Schuable's statements, he is very clear on austerity and wage deflation being a policy goal. <br /><br />These are real people causing real suffering, but Davies acts like the Euro Institutions are a force of nature.A Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06916657901677009228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-22707738715428237122015-04-24T12:18:33.719-04:002015-04-24T12:18:33.719-04:00You may be busy grading papers.
Dan Davies:
http...You may be busy grading papers.<br /><br />Dan Davies:<br /><br />https://medium.com/bull-market/greece-the-next-steps-and-scenarios-576aedb408d4<br /><br />Congrats from Mike Konczal:<br /><br />"Personally, I’m happy that it quotes J.W. Mason’s work on profits and borrowing shifting from investment in a previous era to cash leaving the firm now. This issue is a major piece of our Financialization Project here at Roosevelt, and we will continue to develop it in the future."<br /><br />http://www.nextnewdeal.net/rortybomb/senator-baldwin-asking-sec-questions-about-disgorge-cash<br />Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08272747870634233567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-14340670556413736032015-04-21T09:23:30.425-04:002015-04-21T09:23:30.425-04:00I do not think that there's actually a legitim...I do not think that there's actually a legitimate way of being 'kicked out of Target2', only changes on the collateral framework of BoG and capital controls.<br /><br />The good scenario is that Greece remains connected and ends in the ERM II mechanism as Denmark and can draw on (unlimited?) euro credit lines in order to maintain its exchange rate within certain bounds with the Euro. The bad scenario is that it remains connected in the same way as other EU countries which need to have positive balance on their central banks accounts with the Eurosystem.<br /><br />As for the current Target2 liabilities my view is that they will become drachmas (as part of the BoG balance sheet) and constitute 'foreign reserves' of the Eurosystem. But that's as good a guess as anyone's else.Kostas Kalevrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12215782761139619874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-56633575645931943972015-04-21T09:12:26.078-04:002015-04-21T09:12:26.078-04:00I hadn't thought about the seasonal issue. You...I hadn't thought about the seasonal issue. You might be right, in which case more comprehensive exchange controls and foreign exchange rationing might be needed. On the other hand, it seems like you'd effectively have that already if Greece is kicked out of TARGET2.JW Masonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-70446763510780533682015-04-20T15:50:48.889-04:002015-04-20T15:50:48.889-04:00I am not sure I agree with the last sentence. Take...I am not sure I agree with the last sentence. Take a look at today's balance of payments <a href="http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/en/Bank/News/PressReleases/DispItem.aspx?Item_ID=4957&List_ID=1af869f3-57fb-4de6-b9ae-bdfd83c66c95&Filter_by=DT" rel="nofollow">data</a>. Greece might have achieved a positive annual BoP position but it still has significant needs on a monthly basis to finance short-term external deficits (especially during the first half of the year). Thus a liquidity provider of last resort is necessary even if the Greek government were to default on all its liabilities.Kostas Kalevrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12215782761139619874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-15724099596608594292015-04-20T14:54:24.350-04:002015-04-20T14:54:24.350-04:00What we are talking about here is an active politi...<i>What we are talking about here is an active political threat to kick Greece out of the Euro, not a passive economic exit. </i><br /><br />I agree with this. But I think we have to think more critically about what it means to be "in the euro system." There are a number of distinct pieces and there is no reason in principle a country can't participate in some but not all of them, just as some but not all countries in the EU participate in the euro system. It's not a binary, I don't think.JW Masonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-51696505124004565812015-04-20T14:52:29.054-04:002015-04-20T14:52:29.054-04:00Presumably they will be impossible, unless they ar...Presumably they will be impossible, unless they are routed through the BoG or some other institution with access to non-euro currencies. In other words, capital controls -- which would be a very good thing for Greece IMO.JW Masonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-60850857607297707772015-04-20T14:51:21.410-04:002015-04-20T14:51:21.410-04:00That's right. That's actually part of the ...That's right. That's actually part of the point of the working paper I linked to the other day.JW Masonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-15724101207122363032015-04-20T13:48:01.977-04:002015-04-20T13:48:01.977-04:00If ELA funds have been used for greek payments to ...If ELA funds have been used for greek payments to other EZ countries through TARGET2, does ELA cutoff also mean cutoff from TARGET2? If the greeks don't have access to the TARGET2 system it is hard to see how one could say they are still part of the Euro Zone.<br /><br />The whole default debate seems like a red herring. The passive wording of "Greek Exit" is annoying. What we are talking about here is an active political threat to kick Greece out of the Euro, not a passive economic exit. <br /><br />The Euro Zone is a political construct, and greek could get kicked ou <br /><br />A Hhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06916657901677009228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-948723643530063532015-04-20T12:08:22.387-04:002015-04-20T12:08:22.387-04:00It's too much of a gray area for anyone to ans...It's too much of a gray area for anyone to answer (plus I m not a lawyer anyway).<br /><br />In any case, 'terminating ELA' is more or less the same as capital controls. Since ELA financing has been used to finance increased Target2/cashnotes liabilities there isn't any way for the Greek banks to find the funds to cover their exposure towards BoG.<br /><br />So terminating ELA (by not accepting Greek government guaranteed securities) would just mean a default by Greek banks although BoG would retain the relevant securities. The last point is important in rejecting any scenario involving deposit haircuts like the ones which happened in Cyprus.<br /><br />As you can understand it is really difficult for the Eurozone to 'expel' Greece from the Euro. It will mostly be a matter of Greece having to find a way to keep functioning after some ugly developments involving failure to pay on its liabilities and changes in the ELA collateral framework.Kostas Kalevrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12215782761139619874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-73618594755843460262015-04-20T12:07:57.230-04:002015-04-20T12:07:57.230-04:00"All that is necessary is that if someone wit..."All that is necessary is that if someone with a deposit in Greek bank A wants to make a payment to someone with an account at Greek bank B, there is some system by which bank A can transfer a settlement asset to bank B, acquiring the asset if necessary by issuing a new liability."<br /><br />What about payments to non-Greek banks in other countries? Jan Cnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-59045296553461909072015-04-20T12:06:57.144-04:002015-04-20T12:06:57.144-04:00"the FT last month wept crocodile tears over ..."the FT last month wept crocodile tears over the fact that "default on Greek debts would deter wealthier voters from ever again helping their neighbours in financial distress."<br /><br />About your footnote number two, the unintended consequences of the harsh IMF structural adjustment programs after the East Asia Financial Crisis of the 1990s is the savings glut and the determination of China and others of never being put in the position of having to go to the IMF. <br /><br />The recent blog discussion with Bernanke about the SecStags and low interest rates centered on the fact that the rest of the world doesn't want to borrow from the West. Maybe it's partly because of their thug-like collection policies. Spain and Greece won't want to go through this again I bet.<br />Peterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08272747870634233567noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-64764660187813621802015-04-20T12:00:53.564-04:002015-04-20T12:00:53.564-04:00Unfortunately I 'm not aware of any good refer...Unfortunately I 'm not aware of any good references on the Pillar-2/3 bonds. One has to do his own research on the subject.Kostas Kalevrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12215782761139619874noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-90349507940042394512015-04-20T10:53:10.680-04:002015-04-20T10:53:10.680-04:00I think that it is true that a Greek default doesn...<i>I think that it is true that a Greek default doesn't imply a greek exit from the euro: I'm thinking of something like eurodollars.</i><br /><br />Right, that's a good comparison. <br /><br /><i>However, it seems to me that it is the eurocrats who are pushing this line, so maybe they would try to force Greece out by other means if Greece defaults.</i><br /><br />Very possibly. But on the other hand, maybe they are pushing this line because the idea that default = exit is the biggest threat they have.JW Masonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-8244886730465193592015-04-20T09:22:05.783-04:002015-04-20T09:22:05.783-04:00I think that it is true that a Greek default doesn...I think that it is true that a Greek default doesn't imply a greek exit from the euro: I'm thinking of something like eurodollars.<br /><br />However, it seems to me that it is the eurocrats who are pushing this line, so maybe they would try to force Greece out by other means if Greece defaults.<br /><br />I don't know what kind of weapon they could use though.MisterMrhttp://bunyanmk7.blogspot.it/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-9249187558762619192015-04-20T08:13:44.526-04:002015-04-20T08:13:44.526-04:00Also, I don't know if this is something you ha...Also, I don't know if this is something you have any insight into, but the big question I am wondering about is, if the ECB wanted to terminate liquidity support to Greek banks and the Greek government wanted it to continue, the Bank of Greece would presumably find itself in a legally ambiguous position. Do we have any idea which side the BoG leadership would lean towards? JW Masonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-16660721204650258722015-04-20T08:04:55.620-04:002015-04-20T08:04:55.620-04:00Kostas-
Thanks, this is helpful.
More or less an...Kostas-<br /><br />Thanks, this is helpful.<br /><br /><i>More or less any failure to pay by the Greek government on its liabilities (towards creditors such as the IMF, ECB, post-PSI bondholders) will allow the EFSF to declare its loan to Greece in default as well.</i><br /><br />Allow, but not require, right? In general, it seems like default will not be a decision of the Greek government, but of the creditors -- presumably as punishment for insufficient "progress" on formally unrelated policies like collective bargaining rights and the minimum wage.<br /><br /><i>legally, since the bonds have been issued by the banks themselves, it is not easy for the ECB to force BoG to stop accepting them, only maybe ask for increased haircuts.</i><br /><br />This is good to know. Where would you recommend I go to learn more about the specifics?<br /><br /><i>a Greek government 'failure to pay' can be quite complicated in its legal aspects and will probably lead to capital controls but not to an automatic Grexit.</i><br /><br />Glad to hear that this is your view as well.<br /><br /><br />JW Masonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10664452827447313845noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5154389358831836369.post-39026895910829425752015-04-20T04:30:50.215-04:002015-04-20T04:30:50.215-04:00Just to throw in a few relevant numbers.
First of...Just to throw in a few relevant numbers.<br /><br />First of all what is highly important is the events of default clause in the refinancing agreement between the Greek government and the <a href="http://www.efsf.europa.eu/attachments/efsf_financial_assistance_facility_agreement_greece_bond_interest.pdf" rel="nofollow">EFSF</a>. More or less any failure to pay by the Greek government on its liabilities (towards creditors such as the IMF, ECB, post-PSI bondholders) will allow the EFSF to declare its loan to Greece in default as well.<br /><br />Nevertheless, both IMF and ECB SMP holdings (which are Greek-law bonds) carry a 30-day grace period while the Greek has considerable leverage in the case of the ECB since it can use its own courts and laws to avoid immediate payment on ECB bonds.<br /><br />For Greece to exit the Eurozone it is necessary for the ECB to withdraw ELA financing. Yet Greek banks do not use governmet bonds/T-Bills for refinancing (at a significant level) but rather EFSF notes or own-issued bonds of Pillars-2/3 of a Greek law (Pillar-2 provides government guarantee on bank bonds while Pillar-3 involves covered bonds which also carry a government guarantee). See for instance NBG <a href="https://www.nbg.gr/greek/the-group/investor-relations/financial-information/presentations/Documents/%CE%A0%CE%B1%CF%81%CE%BF%CF%85%CF%83%CE%B9%CE%AC%CF%83%CE%B5%CE%B9%CF%82/20150323%20NBG%204Q%20Results%20Presentation.pdf" rel="nofollow">results</a>. So legally, since the bonds have been issued by the banks themselves, it is not easy for the ECB to force BoG to stop accepting them, only maybe ask for increased haircuts.<br /><br />Overall, a Greek government 'failure to pay' can be quite complicated in its legal aspects and will probably lead to capital controls but not to an automatic Grexit.Kostas Kalevrashttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12215782761139619874noreply@blogger.com